Shoreview, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

556
FXUS63 KMPX 131750
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1150 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain spreads across western Wisconsin overnight, but
  temperatures should remain warm enough top prevent any icing.

- Northwesterly wind gusts over 30 mph this afternoon behind a
  cold front, along with rapidly falling temperatures

- Periods of light snow Thursday through Friday with total
  accumulations of 2-4" expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Light rain continues to spread across western Wisconsin
overnight as expected, but temperatures a few degrees warmer
than previously forecast has removed any chance for freezing
rain/freezing drizzle. Ground temperatures still remain cold
however, so still watch out for some slick patches on untreated
surfaces through this morning from the light rain & melting
snow.

A cold front moves through the region this afternoon & evening,
leading to gusty northwest winds & plummeting temepratures
after sunset. We usually see wind gusts overachieve in these
cold advection regimes, so wind gusts of 30-40 mph look likely
this afternoon & evening with gusts diminishing after midnight.
The cold air from this front doesn`t really arrive until this
evening, so most of the area should still reach the 40s this
afternoon. However, temperatures quickly plummet in the teens &
single digits tonight. The cold advection continues into
Wednesday with daytime highs only expected to be in the teens,
while northwest winds make the wind chill fee near zero during
the day.

Deterministic & ensemble guidance continues to be in consensus
with a trough deepening over the Great Lakes Thursday through
Friday, while a number of shortwaves/lobes of vorticity pivot
over the area. This will create multiple waves of light to
moderate snow Thursday through Friday, although none of these
waves look to be accompanied by any appreciable moisture.
SNowfall rates should remain light, with accumulations
eventually adding up to 2-4" across most of the area by the time
the snow wraps up Friday night/Saturday morning. We could see
some borderline Advisory-level impacts if one of these waves of
snow times up with the morning or evening commutes Thursday or
Friday, but over wise this looks to be a "cosmetic snowfall"
for the area.

We remain entrenched in a cold airmass after the trough begins
sliding off to the east this weekend with ensemble guidance
suggesting temperatures 15-20 degrees below normal this weekend
into early next week. That likely means highs in the single
digits & lows below zero, although lows will greatly depend on
how much snow we see Thu-Fri & how clear skies can stay
overnight. Winds also look to remain elevated through this cold
snap, so we`ll have to monitor the potential for cold weather
advisories during the nights & morning hours.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1135 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

A stratus deck near 2500 to 3500 ft is spreading south across
central Minnesota and western Wisconsin at the start of the
period. Expect MVFR cigs to continue through this afternoon and
evening. There may be on and off periods of MVFR and VFR with
the stratus settled in right around 3000 ft. WNW winds will
shift northwesterly through the period, with gusts up to 30 to
35 kts this afternoon and evening. Winds begin to weaken
heading into Wednesday morning. There is a low chance for
sprinkles or flurries this evening, mainly over western
Wisconsin, though confidence and impacts are too low to include
in the TAF at this time.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR/-SN likely, chance IFR/LIFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
FRI...MVFR/-SN likely, chance IFR. Wind NW 15-20G30 kts.
SAT...MVFR likely, chance -SN early. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.
&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...BED